INFORME DE L'AGÈNCIA STRATFOR SOBRE ELS MOVIMENTS SECESSIONISTES A EUROPA [18 d'agost 2012] (La situació catalana és qualificada com activa, però no explosiva)

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods. Re: [Eurasia] TASKING - Secessionism in Europe Released on 2012-08-18 22:00 GMT Email-ID 842306 Date 2010-07-26 23:49:55 From marko.papic@stratfor.com To eurasia@stratfor.com, watchofficer@stratfor.com, rodger.baker@stratfor.com, monitors@stratfor.com Ok, and you can be in charge of that one. Updated list (Eugene, I tasked you to some of the regions Lauren proposed): Level I Italy - Aosta Valley -- Croatia - Serbian Krajina - Denmark - Faroe Islands - Spain - Galicia - U.K. - Northern Ireland - Ukraine - Crimea - Serbia - Vojvodina - Level II Italy - Lombardy - Bosnia - Western Herzegovina - Denmark - Greenland - Finland/Sweden/Norway - Sami-land - Spain - Basque Country - Ukraine - Carpathian Ruthenia - Serbia - Sandzak - Level III Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions, really the entire country) - Cyrpus - Northern (Turkish) Cyprus - Romania - Szekler Land - Spain - Catalonia - U.K. - Scotland - Level IV Bosnia - Republika Srpska - Moldova - Transdniestria - Macedonia - Albanian region - Russia - Chechnya - Russia - Dagestan - Russia - Ingushetia - Russia - Kabardino-Balkaria - Russia - Tatarrstan - Russia - Bashkortostan - Russia - Adygea - Russia - Karachai-Cherkessia - Russia - North Ossetia - Serbia - North Kosovo - Azerbaijan - Nagorno Karabakh - Georgia - Adjara - Georgia - Samtskhe-Javaheti - Level V (secession over, violence still possible) Georgia - SOuth Ossetia - Georgia - Abkhazia - I. Quietly Simmering - Yes, secessionism is an idea, but the region has no interest in pursuing it. II. Simmering, but weak - Secessionism is more than an idea - if not the outright stated goal -- it is a desire, but the region has no means in pursuing it. III. Active, but not explosive - Secessionism is the stated goal, but there is very little danger of violent uprising. IV. Active - Secessionism is the stated goal and violence is potential means by which the country will pursue it. (the last two levels are really distinguished only by the factor of violence) Methodologically, we need five things: 1. Response to the ICJ Kosovo ruling. So for example the commentary by EP VP Laszlo Tokes (Hungarian from Romania) today would be something we are looking for. Same with Dodik's comments. Let's put all those together. Let's really search for any comments made by all the regions since the opinion was issued, and let's have the monitors increase their sensitivity to any comments (even if they're from a place like Northern Ireland) from this point forward. 2. An assessment of foreign backing for the region in question. So for places like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this is obvious. What about Republika Srpska and the Albanians in Macedonia? 3. Popular support for secession. This becomes especially important in Western Europe. So let's look at polling data as well. 4. An assessment of the leadership (political and/or military) of the territory's secessionism. 5. Tasking sources in the region on how they perceive the ICJ decision and who is next. Breakdown of regions (plus who I want to get cracking at the information for the region): Level I Italy - Aosta Valley - Croatia - Serbian Krajina Denmark - Faroe Islands Spain - Galicia U.K. - Northern Ireland Ukraine - Crimea Serbia - Vojvodina Level II Italy - Lombardy Bosnia - Western Herzegovina Denmark - Greenland Finland/Sweden/Norway - Sami-land Spain - Basque Country Ukraine - Carpathian Ruthenia Serbia - Sandzak Level III Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions, really the entire country) Cyrpus - Northern (Turkish) Cyprus Romania - Szekler Land Spain - Catalonia U.K. - Scotland Level IV Bosnia - Republika Srpska Moldova - Transdniestria Macedonia - Albanian region Russia - Chechnya Russia - Dagestan Russia - Ingushetia Russia - Kabardino-Balkaria Russia - Tatarrstan Serbia - North Kosovo //Font: Agència Stratfor (EEUU, publicat per Wikileaks